The international community, so does the global media, may overlook the ongoing civil war like situation in Myanmar (also known as Burma and Brahmadesh), but the ground situation indicates an everlasting chaos in the southeast Asian nation where thousands have been killed, another few thousands injured and millions of people including women and children rendered homeless because of the conflict that erupted after the military coup four years back. Relentless gun fighting between the ruling military junta and ethnic armed groups supported by a large section of common Burmese nationals with arms on their hands has made the situation more complicated. Lately the junta forces led by Min Aung Hlaing start losing their influence over the country and currently less than 50% territorial areas remain under their direct control.
Latest reports reveal that the junta now controls only 32% of Myanmar townships, where 24% slips into full conflict zones and 44% have gone under the control of revolutionary forces, ethnic resistance organizations and people’s defense forces. Till date, the Buddhist majority nation has witnessed the killing of over 6000 civilians, mostly by the junta soldiers. No less than 27,000 people were arrested and nearly 21,000 still remain under military custody. The continuous airstrikes by junta forces on populated areas, setting many villages and urban localities on fire across the country of 55 million people became the order of the day. More than 3.2 million people have already displaced and they are presently facing acute food, medical and other logistic crises. In many relief camps, essential commodities have been prevented or restricted from transporting and distributing among the affected families by the military authorities.
Mentionable is that the revolutionary forces under the banner of ‘Three Brotherhood Alliance’, comprising the Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army had launched a massive offensive (titled Operation 1027) in late 2023. Till date, the ethnic groups and resistance forces have gained full control over 144 townships, leaving only 107 townships under the junta’s authority, where 79 townships are still facing offensives from the anti-junta forces. According to a Burmese source in Yangon, the junta has lost 173 military battalion headquarters including two regional military commands, six command headquarters and six strategic military bases as well as 742 frontline outposts to the revolutionary fighters.
Moreover, the armed militias have brought under control the important routes connecting the border towns with Bangladesh, India, Thailand and China. The AA fighters in particular captured 15 out of 17 Arakanese townships in western Myanmar along with a large number of military bases including the junta’s strategic Western Command headquarters in Ann locality. Following the intervention of China, the TNLA and MNDAA announced the ceasefire, but their fighters had already seized over 15 townships as well as several military bases (including Northeastern Command Headquarters in Lashio) in northern Shan State and the Mandalay region.
Now the junta comes forward with the plan to conduct national elections by later this year. The junta-controlled Union Election Commission even started preliminary preparations for the polls including a countrywide census. However, the electoral process in the land of Golden Pagodas faces challenges since its independence in 1948. The powerful government armed forces often dictate the political leadership where the military-drafted 2008 Constitution made the situation more doubtful for the pro-democracy activists, as it has reserved 25 percent of Parliamentary seats for the military persons and their associates. The continued detention of pro-democracy crusader Daw Aung Suu Kyi, who is attaining 80 on 19 June next, for a total of 19 years simply made the situation clumsier.
Meanwhile, an active policy research & advocacy organization Progressive Voice commented that the military junta has intensified its forced conscription campaign targeting persons in 18-35 age groups issuing new measures on 23 January. The junta authorities have heightened the risks for Myanmar’s youth, including women & children, forcing them to become pawns for the junta or risk everything to escape with constant fear of capture, punishment, and death, it added. Since its forced conscription started in February 2023, the junta continues to recruit young people even snatching from the streets, buses, and planes, as well as their residences to deploy on frontlines. Intending to recruit 5,000 conscripts per batch, the junta is now on its ninth batch, but the exact number of forced conscripts remains unclear.
A comparison study between the 1 February 2021 military coup and present day Myanmar reflects that the country was experiencing a kind of political stability and economic growth under a quasi- democratic government in Naypyitaw, but now the whole country emerges as a battleground, where millions of civilians are suffering. The arbitrary military operations including over 3000 airstrikes on populated areas have resulted in the death of at least 6,224 people including 711 children and 1,387 women. The number of political prisoners has surged from 234 before the coup to 21,711 till last month. A huge number of elected representatives, pro-democracy activists, writer-journalists, artists and civilians have been imprisoned for opposing the military regime.